Falls, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

542
FXUS61 KBGM 130541
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1241 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settling in over the area will lead to a clear
and cold night followed by dry and sunny conditions Wednesday.
There will be a low chance for some light rain showers Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night, before likely drying out again
for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

1240 AM Update...

Touched up cloud cover and temperatures through the near term
based on the latest observations, trends and guidance. No
significant changes were made. It will be a cold and clear
start, with sunny skies prevailing through the day. A large
diurnal swing in temperatures will allow for afternoon highs in
the upper 40s to low 50s. Another cold night tonight, as high
pressure slowly retreats east. Very dry low level air should
allow temperatures to quickly fall into the upper 10s and 20s in
the evening, especially along and east of I-81. High clouds
arrive toward or after midnight from the west and this slows or
stops temperatures from falling further; especially as east-
southeast winds begin to gradually increase between 5-10 mph.

940 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made to cloud cover over the Finger Lakes
region as scattered clouds are likely to linger around through
the next several hours before beginning to clear and raised
temperatures slightly in this area in the near term as well. Dew
points were running above what was currently projected,
especially in the Catskills, so did mix in a little bit of the
NBM90th percentile which was doing pretty well with what was
observed into the forecast through the rest of the night.

630 PM Update...

Scattered clouds streaming south off of Lake Ontario over the
Finger Lakes region has temperatures slightly higher than
projected in this area in the near term, and will be something
to keep an eye on the rest of this evening until the clouds
clear. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track as
high pressure settles in overhead and winds continue to subside.


215 PM Update

Cool Canadian high pressure is moving into the region. This will
bring mostly clear skies tonight with cold overnight lows in
the upper teens to mid-20s.

High pressure will remain overhead on Wednesday with dry
conditions under mostly sunny skies. Winds will also be light
tomorrow as the high settles overhead. High pressure slides
east of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning as an upper
trough tracks eastward into the Great Lakes. Not expecting any
precipitation with this incoming system before dawn on
Thursday, however mid and upper level clouds will start to
increase from the west during the early morning hours Thursday.
Depending on the exact timing of the clouds, there could be a
moderation of low temperatures Thursday morning for our western
counties, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. However,
eastern areas will still likely see lows dipping into the upper
teens to low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

A neutrally tilted trough over the central part of the country
will slowly slide eastward Wednesday night and Thursday and tilt
negatively. This negative tilt will transfer energy from the
surface low over the southern Great Lakes region to the
southeast, reforming the low over the Carolinas Thursday night.

The rain that will develop with the first surface low over the
Great Lakes will slide eastward Thursday, moving into western NY
by early afternoon. It will bump up against a lobe of high
pressure extending into CNY from Canada. The battle between dry,
high pressure dominated air and the shortwave looks to be won
out by the high as precipitation is expected to move into our
western counties Thursday afternoon, but should remain west of
I-81 as the dry air evaporates most of the precipitation. We may
get enough virga to dynamically cool and moisten the atmosphere
so that snow showers fall across higher elevations along the
I-81 corridor during the evening hours on Thursday, if we can
get showers to move that far east. Guidance is still unsure as
to how far east the low move before loosing energy. If it is a
quicker negative tilt and surface low energy transfer, we could
miss out on showers completely. Current thinking is the low
should quickly transfer its energy to the 2nd low developing
over the Carolinas Thursday night, causing rain shower chances
over our western counties to dissipate by Friday morning. High
pressure will slowly build into the region from the west as a
ridge strengthens over the central portion of the country. NW
flow will bring lake clouds across the area through the day on
Friday, slowly scattering out through Friday night.

Cloudy skies on Thursday will keep highs on the cool side, only
climbing into the low to mid 40s, with Thursday night lows in
the low to mid 30s. Friday will be slightly warmer thanks to
increased sunshine, with highs reaching the upper 40s to low 50s
and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM Update...

A strong ridge will build over the SE US through the weekend,
bringing us weak warm air advection and high pressure dominance
Saturday and Sunday. Highs should be in the upper 40s to mid 50s
both days. A quick hitting shortwave coming out of Canada may
ride the northern edge of the ridge and bring rain showers to
the area Sunday night into Monday. Guidance is still uncertain
as to timing and duration of the rain so went with NBM guidance
for this period. Weak high pressure follows the departing
shortwave for Tuesday, with dry conditions for most and
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

1235 AM Update

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. Some
lake clouds at around 3000 ft AGL are near ELM but these will
shift west and dissipate before sunrise. Otherwise, expect
clear/sunny skies through the day today, with perhaps a few high
level cirrus clouds arriving from the west toward the end of
this taf period.


Expect north to east winds less than 8 kts through the taf
the rest of the overnight and day time on Wednesday. Light winds
eventually shift more southeasterly after sunset into Wednesday
evening; still less than 8 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night...VFR expected. High confidence.

Thursday...Low confidence forecast. A low pressure system may
graze portions of the region with rain showers and associated
restrictions. The best chances would be at AVP, ELM, BGM, and
ITH.

Friday and Saturday...Low confidence forecast. NW flow could
bring some lake effect clouds into the area with associated
restrictions, but VFR is more likely should drier air work in.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Moderate confidence.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL/MJM