Falls, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

837
FXUS61 KBGM 141749
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
149 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be warm through the weekend before a frontal
system moves through on Sunday and brings cooler temperatures along
with the next chance for widespread rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages:

- Quieter end to the week as temperatures warm up - cannot
completely rule out some isolated showers and storms
- Frontal system moves through on Sunday with more widespread
showers and storms
- Cooler next week with low chances for showers

Discussion:

Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon as a weak shortwave
works its way through the region. There will be plenty of
instability present to support thunderstorms but shear is weak so
any storms that can develop will be short-lived. High pressure
builds into the region late today and overnight with drier air, so
confidence is low that there will be much fog Friday morning. Mainly
dry conditions are expected for the end of the work week. However,
moisture will work its way in from the south, and while limited, it
might be enough for a couple of showers as weak waves move through.
Chances look better on Saturday as that plume of moisture surges
further north. Instability and shear are both weak but there may be
enough around for a few rumbles of thunder. Temperatures will trend
slightly warmer into the weekend.

A cold front will move through on Sunday with a better chance for
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the front
moves into the region from the northwest early on Sunday. With
southern portions of the region likely staying rain-free until the
afternoon hours, daytime heating should help create an unstable
environment and potentially support a few stronger storms. Following
the front`s passage Sunday night, cooler air begins to filter in and
temperatures cool back down into the 70s and 80s for the first half
of next week.

High pressure will drop south behind the departing front leading to
a dry start to the work week. Beyond Monday, there is some
uncertainty with the timing for the next round of showers. The GFS
is earliest with showers ahead of the main system beginning as early
as Tuesday morning whereas the ECMWF keeps conditions dry until at
least early Wednesday morning. NBM guidance seems reasonable given
this uncertainty with low chances for showers Tuesday and Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. A passing shower should end
by 18Z for KRME. Lingering low clouds at KITH should clear
fairly soon as well by 20Z. Fog potential overnight but a drier
airmass moving in looks to the limit the coverage at this time
to KELM in the typical 06-12Z Friday window.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers/t-storms along
another frontal passage.

Monday and Tuesday... Mainly VFR; low chance of
showers/t-storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...MWG